Middle East
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Red Sea Attacks
20 Dec 2023 |
How deeply will the maritime attacks in the Red Sea affect the economy?
On the 19th of November, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels attacked a British-owned and Japanese-operated cargo ship, the Galaxy Leader, near the southern tip of the Red Sea. It remains anchored off the Hudaydah Port in Yemen, with the ship's 25 crew members being held hostage for over a month now. A few weeks after this brazen attack, the rebels struck three commercial ships traveling through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait with ballistic missiles while a US warship in the region destroyed three incoming drones. On Tuesday the 12th of December, a Norwegian tanker headed for Israel was struck by a missile fired from Yemen and caught fire. A Houthi spokesperson commented on social media that the ship had "refused to respond to warning." The group's slogan is "Death to America, Death to Israel, curse the Jews and victory to Islam." These attacks are being perpetrated by an Iranian-backed terrorist group, but we cannot underestimate both Russia and China's involvement. In addition to being allies of the militant state of Iran, nothing would please Putin and Xi more than focus—and resources—shifting away from the war in Ukraine and the defense of Taiwan. Switching gears to the economic standpoint, how much will these increasingly audacious attacks affect the global economy? About 12% of tanker traffic and 30% of shipping containers traverse the Red Sea. The shippers are increasingly rerouting their craft to avoid the region, which we believe will cause a number of headaches for a world economy finally shaking off the effects of a global pandemic. For the better part of a month, oil seemed to shrug off the troubles (we added a long oil ETF to the mix when crude dropped to a six-handle), but over the past week WTI has risen 7% in price. Inflation is another concern. The bullish theme going into 2024 is for inflation to drop nearer the Fed's 2% target range, allowing the central bank to lower rates several times. If oil moves higher due to the turmoil and 30% of container shipments must be rerouted, that might renew upward pressure on prices—freight rates have already spiked and the longer trips can add up to $1 million per journey. We buy into the bullish oil story (sadly), but less so the general renewed-inflation narrative. The US will not simply stand by much longer and allow these attacks to continue. This week, the US launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, a 39-member international coalition designed to defend Red Sea shipping lanes. Under the command of the US Navy Fifth Fleet, Task Force 153's mission is to "focus on international maritime security...in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden." While attempting to avoid an escalation in the conflict, such as an attack by Hezbollah—an Iran-backed Lebanese militia—along Israel's northern border, we can expect this task force to heavily suppress the Houthi threat to the narrow shipping lane. The alternative is an unacceptable disruption of global commerce with no end in sight. Look to the Galaxy Leader for signs of where this conflict is headed. Will there be a rescue attempt or a negotiated release of the ship and its crew, or will the situation drag on akin to the Iranian hostage crisis of 1979? Sadly, we recall what happened during that rescue attempt. While there are no American crew members on the Galaxy, it has an eerily similar feel to the pre-election crisis of forty-four years ago. |
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Turkey
21 Sep 2023 |
Think a 5.5% US interest rate is high? Turkey just raised rates to 30%
We looked back on our previous comments on Turkey and found this quote from November 2021: “Despite the fact that his second five-year term, which will end in 2023, should make him ineligible from running again, any bets on who will still be the Turkish president in 2024?” We called it, as Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently won reelection to a third—and illegal—term as president. Perhaps it is the fabulous job he is doing with his country’s economy, such as the 60% annual inflation rate Turks are now facing. To fight this nightmarish condition for the consumer, the Turkish central bank did something remarkable: it raised the benchmark rate from 25% to 30% at its latest meeting. The country has been trying to lure in foreign investment; maybe they can entice investors with their 18.79% ten-year government bond rate. To say the economic situation in Turkey is dire is an understatement. Food costs have gone up 60% over the past year, while cafes, restaurants, and hotels have raised their prices by 83%. For Turks seeking a brief respite from domestic inflation by traveling abroad, more pain awaits. The lira has weakened substantially against the US dollar, losing one-third of its value this year alone. That makes exports from the Middle Eastern country cheaper for the world to buy, but that means little to the struggling consumer. At least their beloved leader is still in power. Turkey is uninvestable and will remain so until Erdogan is gone. His latest power play is to hold Sweden’s NATO ambitions hostage until the European Union welcomes his country as a new member. That would be great for Turkey, not so much for the rest of the Union. The EU is already in the economic doldrums, and another big drag on the economy is the last thing it needs. |
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Turkey
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"Insanity" is how Erdogan's demanded rate cuts in the face of 20% Turkish inflation is being described
(23 Nov 2021) To set the stage: Turkey is not a US ally, despite that country's longstanding NATO membership. Under the mercurial leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia seems to have more influence than does the West, despite Turkey's desire to be seen as part of the EU rather than the Middle East. Under that backdrop comes the bizarre economic situation going on in the country of 85 million people. The main reason that the central bank in the US will probably raise rates at least twice next year is to dampen the rate of inflation, which is currently well above the 2% target range. In Turkey, inflation is running at a nightmarish (for consumers) pace of 20%, so what does Erdogan do? He orders the country's central bank to lower rates. Hence the claims of insanity. And for anyone who believes that the president didn't order the cuts consider this: he has fired three central bank chiefs in the past two years for daring to question his monetary views. Erdogan's defense is that he is waging "an economic war of independence." His strange war has had quite the impact on the Turkish lira, which is now trading at 13:1 versus the US dollar. So, for the unfortunate Turkish worker, this means that their paycheck is being watered down on a daily basis while prices at the local bazar or supermarket are simultaneously going up on a daily basis. A recipe for disaster. Somehow, despite the economic nightmare, Erdogan has still managed to finance the expensive purchase of a Russian-made S-400 missile defense system—a system designed to thwart the most advanced US fighters. To counter the move, the US has removed Turkey from the F-35 joint strike fighter program at a cost of half a billion dollars. The only good news about the economic situation Erdogan is causing within his country is that he will be forced to play defense, taking time away from his mental musings on how to foment more trouble in the region. It is going to take an uprising by the Turkish people to remove Recep Tayyip Erdogan from power. Despite the fact that his second five-year term, which will end in 2023, should make him ineligible for running again, any bets on who will still be the Turkish president in 2024 and beyond? While that country's constitution prohibits a third term, when has a legal document ever stopped a dictator? Look no further than Vlad Putin. As for a Turkish uprising, sadly, look no further than Venezuela for evidence that those odds, despite the human suffering, are slim to none. |
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Iran
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Top Iranian nuclear scientist killed near Tehran
(27 Nov 2020) Iran's "peaceful" nuclear power program was dealt a major blow on Friday when the alleged head of the unit was killed in a small city east of Tehran. Witnesses describe hearing an explosion followed by the sound of automatic rifles being fired; when the dust settled, Moshen Fakhrizadeh was dead and his bodyguards were either killed or wounded. State-controlled Iranian media outlets wasted no time in pointing the finger at Israel. An advisor to Ali Khamenei, Iran's "supreme leader," responded to the attack: "We will descend like lightning on the killers of this oppressed martyr and we will make them regret their actions!" Of course, Iran has no need for "peaceful" nuclear power, based on its abundance of fossil fuels. The ability to intimidate its enemies and the capability to actually launch nuclear weapons against those enemies—namely Israel—is at the core of its nuclear development program. |
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Iran
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Violent protests take place across Iran as ruling mullahs end gas subsidies. (18 Nov 2019) Talk about rich irony. OPEC member-state Iran holds around 10% of the world's proven oil reserves and 15% of its gas. It is the world's fourth-largest oil producer. Against that backdrop, the ruling mullahs in the country just began rationing gasoline and ended gas subsidies to the citizenry, pushing prices up by over 50%. Understandably, Iranians have taken to the streets in cities across the country to protest these draconian measures, with many of the demonstrations turning violent. In an effort to keep the world in the dark with respect to the domestic violence, network tracking agency NetBlocks reports that the government has all but completely shutdown internet services in the country. US sanctions against the Iranian regime, the country's lack of refining capacity, and the general mismanagement of the economy are all contributing factors with respect to the energy shortage and the subsequent protests. Despite the efforts of the government to deflect blame to the United States, the protestors are overwhelmingly focused on their own leaders, demanding an end to the onerous rationing and price spikes. Ultimately, this will not end with a positive outcome for the mullahs or President Hassan Rouhani. And this is not Hong Kong; eventually, these protestors will win.
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Saudi
Aramco |
Sorry, Saudi Arabia, Aramco is not worth $1.7 trillion. (18 Nov 2019) As of Monday's open, there were two companies in the world worth over $1 trillion: Apple (AAPL, $1.18T) and Microsoft (MSFT, $1.14T). If Saudi Arabia has its way, it will offer an entity up for IPO that will immediately blow those two great American companies out of the water, at least from a valuation standpoint. We can poke a lot of holes in their narrative, however. The company in question is Saudi Aramco, officially known as the Saudi Arabian Oil Company. Granted, the state-owned entity had supposed revenues last year of $356 billion, which would make it the sixth-largest company in the world—public or private—from a revenue standpoint, but a lot of their math seems "fuzzy," not to mention how reliant that revenue stream is on the price of oil, which has been coming down over the past year. Furthermore, the company only plans to IPO a 1.5% stake in the firm, offering roughly 3 billion shares at around $8 per share, which would yield $24 billion in much-needed funding for the Kingdom. The company's public debut appears set for next month, and we fully expect it to be successful. It may even beat the record $25 billion raised by Alibaba (BABA) during its 2014 debut. Somewhat ironically, Saudi Arabia will use the proceeds from the offering to diversify its economy away from oil revenues. There are too many unknowns swirling around the energy industry right now as the world grapples with an increasing supply of oil, lower demand, and an ever-increasing demand for alternatives. We wouldn't touch the 0.5% of Saudi Aramco (out of the 1.5%) that will actually be available to individual investors.
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Turkey
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Turkey is proceeding with Russian S-400 deployment, will face substantive consequences. (08 Jul 2019) Despite being a longtime member of NATO (which has always been a tenuous proposition for a country with split loyalties), Turkey has decided not to heed Washington's warnings, and will indeed deploy a Russian antiaircraft system designed to shoot American aircraft from the sky. Turkey was not only slated to receive the most advanced fighter in the world, the F-35 Lightning II, Turkish companies also built a number of components for the Lockheed Martin (LMC $240-$370-$370) aircraft. After satellite confirmation that the country is proceeding with construction of the S-400 deployment sites, the US State Department has announced that all F-35 sales to Turkey have been terminated, and Turkish participation in the building of F-35 parts will be "unwinded." Putin is no doubt thrilled with the decision, but Turkey will pay the price. In addition to the US sanctions, we expect there will be a retribution from NATO coming as well. It is hard to fathom why Erdogan would make such a silly gamble, considering Russia's diminished role in the world. Perhaps he received a call from John Kerry assuring him everything would be smoothed over after the 2021 inauguration. We don't say that tongue-in-cheek, based on previous John Kerry missives which have been intercepted/uncovered.
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Turkey
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US gives Turkey two weeks to cancel its deal to buy a Russian anti-aircraft system. (22 May 2019) The United States has sent a rightful ultimatum to Turkey: renounce the deal to buy the S-400 surface-to-air missile system from Russia, or lose the F-35 fighter contract and face further punitive actions. The fact that a NATO member would have the audacity to buy a system designed to shoot down NATO aircraft is almost unfathomable, and certainly grounds for the organization to review that country's membership. Finally, the United States is standing up (like NATO should have been from the beginning) to the Erdogan regime and clearly telling it that this will not stand. In addition to demanding the $2.5 billion deal with Russia be cancelled, the US also said it expects Turkey to buy Raytheon's (RTN $144-$183-$215) Patriot surface-to-air missile system—a system which seamlessly integrates within NATO's ecosystem—or face further actions from Washington. Turkey has until the end of the first week of June to make its decision. We are torn, as it is becoming more and more evident that Erdogan is no friend to the West, and F-35 technology—the most advanced in the world—may well end up in Russian hands if the aircraft are delivered to Ankara. Despite what decision Turkey makes on the missile system, the mere fact that it was preparing to deploy a system hostile to NATO should make it clear that the country, at least under Erdogan, cannot be trusted going forward.
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Turkey
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What does an autocratic state ruler do when an election goes against them? Void the results, of course. (06 May 2019) The fact that Turkey is a member of NATO and was given the right to purchase the most advanced fighter in the world—the F-35—should send chills down the spine of the free world. The latest example of abuse of power by the country's iron-fisted ruler, Recep Erdogan, came this week as the president's crony national election board threw out the results of Istanbul's mayoral race—a race that the opposition party handily won. Ekrem Imamoglu, who was sworn in three weeks ago as mayor, called Erdogan a "sore loser" for demanding new elections. Despite the outrage over the nullification, want to lay odds on who will be the victor in the new round of elections? Although Russia has had a tumultuous relationship with Turkey, Vlad Putin is a master at playing geopolitical chess. He understands (unlike former US presidents) just how critical a linchpin the country is to regional stability, given its location between the Western and Eastern worlds. The most illustrative example of this can be found in the country's purchase of American F-35s, and a Russian anti-aircraft system designed to shoot down...F-35s.
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Iran
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US sanctions against Iran are already hurting the radical regime. (04 Nov 2018) For all the talk of a global backlash for pulling out of the horrendously-bad Iran nuclear deal, and the Iranian's comical "vow" to not be affected by US actions, new sanctions are already pounding the rogue regime. A full one-third of Iran's oil exports—one million barrels per day—have been halted. With an overwhelmingly oil-based economy, Iran may talk tough, but it is sweating. Foreign direct investment, the other source of life blood for the Iranian economy, has almost completely dried up (Russia is trying to help, but its investment capabilities amount to drops in the bucket). On Monday the 5th of November, full Iranian sanctions took effect, with the US carving out around eight temporary exemptions for countries which rely heavily on Iranian crude, giving them time to find replacements. In the meantime, oil prices have not gone up due to the sanctions, as many experts had predicted they would. In fact, crude prices fell a full 12% in the month of October alone. All of this spells bad news for a tyrannical regime already feeling the heat from its people.
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Iran
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Unemployment, inflation, and broken promises are killing Rouhani, not American aggression. (30 Aug 2018) America has been the go-to bogeyman for thug regimes in trouble around the world for generations, but there are signs, at least in Iran, that this story is getting old. Hassan Rouhani was reelected as president of Iran a year ago, convincing some 24 million voters that he would release political prisoners, give more rights to women, and get the economy back in shape. Fast forward a year. Iran now has a 12.5% unemployment rate, inflation is off the charts, and he has broken every one of his pledges for social change in the country. Conditions are so bad in the country that Rouhani was called before parliament this past Tuesday and given a rare verbal lashing. As further evidence that the new American actions are having an impact, legislators lambasted him for not dealing better with the US-led sanctions. The value of the Iranian rial has been cut in half since the new sanctions were announced: in January it took 40,000 rials to buy a US dollar; the exchange rate is now 100,000 rials to the dollar. Adding injury to insult, the Iranian parliament threw out Rouhani's economy minister, labor minister, and central bank governor to help change the economic landscape in the totalitarian country. It won't work. Only real reform and abandoning the Islamic state's nuclear ambitions can right the ship, and both of those courses are unacceptable to the hardliners running the show.
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Canada
Saudi Arabia |
In rift with Saudi Arabia, Justin Trudeau shows his political inexperience. (08 Aug 2018) Although we actually kind of like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, he continues to show—like his twin brother in France—a dangerous political naivety. The most recent example of this actually led to the country's ambassador to The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia getting the boot. The rift began when a spokeswoman for Canada's foreign minister, Chrystia Freeland, complained about the recent arrest of female political rights activists in the Kingdom. What makes this somewhat ironic is the fact that Saudi's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has undertaken a massive reform program in the country, to include allowing women to drive for the first time, and the loosening of a number of religious restrictions. Why would the Canadian government choose this point in time to begin complaining? Canada certainly did not expect the immediate backlash, which included the expulsion of Ambassador Dennis Horak, the de-funding of Saudi's student exchange program with Canada, and a selling of Canadian assets held by the Kingdom. The next retaliatory steps are expected to include investments made between the two nations. There had to be a better way for the Canadian government to express its concern over the arrest of Saudi activists. When you live in a bubble, however, you tend to believe you are always right, even after that bubble pops. Just ask the arrogant EU leaders in Brussels.
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Turkey
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The economic crisis in Turkey is about to hit critical mass; blame the voters. This past June, voters in Turkey gave President Recep Erdogan another five-year term at the helm—and an incredible new level of power over nearly all matters in the country. That may have been welcome news for Erdogan, but it was disastrous news for the country's economic stability. How bad is it? Right now, the US 10-year Treasury is yielding just shy of 3%. To take the risk of buying a 10-year Turkish government bond, you will be rewarded with a 21% rate; that is, assuming you don't lose your principal before maturity. The Turkish currency, the lira, is now worth around $0.18 on the dollar, and the country's debt load just reached an astronomical 54% of GDP. What is the CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) doing about it? Absolutely nothing. Rates need to rise quickly to tamp down runaway inflation in the country, but Erdogan is not allowing the "independent" CBRT to act because he wants to keep the economy growing with "low" (relative term) rates. What is the next step for the country? Send a delegation to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington DC and ask for a bailout. In a separate issue, but one which overshadows the country's desperate effort to get a cash infusion, the US has placed new sanctions on two Turkish government officials over the ongoing detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson, held on espionage charges. Turkey may be a NATO member, but Erdogan's power grab, the economic nightmare forming, and the detention of Brunson should make it abundantly clear that they are not a trustworthy US ally. Unfortunately, it appears that this unstable country may be given the latest US technology in the form of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. If congress succeeds in halting the sale, Turkey has threatened to buy Russian Su-57s instead. The NATO member just bought Russia's s-400 missile defense system in a direct rebuke to Washington. This situation will get a lot worse before it gets better, and it is likely to be a long, drawn out conflict.
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Turkey
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Despite their NATO membership, the US should rethink sale of F-35s to Turkey
(17 May 2018) It's the latest weapon in our Air Force arsenal. The Lockheed Martin (LMT)-built F-35 Lightning II. The stealthy, fifth-generation fighter represents, along with the F-22 Raptor, America's ongoing dominance of the skies. And Turkey wants at least 100 F-35s in its fleet. Now, for the second time in two years, Congress is moving to block the sale. Turkey may be a NATO member, and the country is located in an uber-strategic location between Europe and the Middle East, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent consolidation of power, and his anti-American rhetoric, should give the US pause. If the bipartisan move to block the sale succeeds, LMT could lose a major sale and Erdogan would ramp up his anti-US saber-rattling, but should we care? To further complicate matters, Turkey has been a major backer of the Syrian opposition, pitting that country against our enemies, namely Assad and Putin. Turkey also took part in US-led airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria. Should the F-35 sale go through? That's a tough one. It appears that Defense Secretary Mattis wants the sale to take place, and it is likely that President Trump would overrule a potential congressional ban. In the end, we believe that is precisely what will happen. |
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Iran
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Markets rise as President Trump pulls US out of disastrous Iranian nuclear deal
(08 May 2018) To say the Iranian nuclear deal was faulty would be akin to saying that Neville Chamberlain wasn't tough enough on Hitler in his 1938 "peace for our time" speech. The deal was a joke, cobbled together by a blowhard who could be the great grandson of Chamberlain. That being said, I fully expected to see the Dow drop as the president's speech was being carried, perhaps by hundreds of points. Interestingly, the S&P 500 and Dow went from negative at the start of the speech to positive at the end. Furthermore, oil futures were down on the day as investors tried to digest what the pullout will actually mean. While the markets did turn negative again in the afternoon, the muted response to the decision was refreshing. Too often we see illogical moves by investors based on short-term feelings rather than sound strategic thinking. After all, what would be the potential impact on the markets of a nuclear-capable Iran? |
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Syria
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Israeli F-15 Eagles purportedly strike Syrian air base following Assad's most recent chemical weapons attack
(09 Apr 2018) What an incredibly stupid move by Syria's hapless dictator, Bashar al-Assad. To make another chemical weapons attack on his own people, after what happened following last year's attack, was an incredible miscalculation; and one which was no doubt backed by Russia's Vladimir Putin. In response to the chemical attack, which left at least 42 dead and hundreds sickened in a rebel-held town 135 miles north of Damascus, the Israeli Air Force purportedly pounded a military base in Homs, Syria, near the ancient town of Palmyra. The attack killed over a dozen military members, including three Syrian commanders and a number of Iranians living at the base. And this is far from over. The brazen attack would have been met with condemnations followed by complete inaction in the past, but the current US administration will act. Sadly, an inept United Nations, which allowed Russia to sit with veto power on the UN Security Council (UNSC), will sit idly by after Assad's horrific attack on innocent men, women, and children. Assad's days are numbered, and there is nothing Putin can do about that. |
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Iraq
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India identifies the bodies of 39 workers killed by Islamic State in Iraq
(20 Mar 2018) When I was deployed to the Middle East during the Gulf War, one thing that struck me was the large number of foreign workers, particularly Filipinos where I was at, performing blue-collar tasks such as construction work and services-related jobs. They came to mind when I read that the government of India had identified the bodies of 39 Indian construction workers who had been kidnapped in Iraq three years ago by radical Muslim terrorists. I thought about how extremely friendly those workers were, trudging through 12-hour workdays and sending nearly all of their earnings back home to support their families. I would imagine virtually all of these Indian workers were just like the Filipino men I met in that part of the world a generation ago. It wasn't enough that they were separated from loved ones, doing the work that was shunned by locals; they had to have their lives taken from them as well. Our prayers go out to the families of these Indian men, and to the families of the thousands still missing in Iraq. |
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Iran
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The Iranian protests are quickly turning into an actual movement for freedom
(02 Jan 2017) It began as a rally against the rising price of goods in the country and the government's (mis-)handling of the economy, but it rapidly turned into something much bigger. The Iranian protests, which began in the second-most populous city of Masshad, are erupting into a nationwide movement, with calls for "supreme leader" Khamenei to step down. That is a very dangerous stance to take in a country whose leaders advocate and maintain absolute power. So far, at least twenty protestors have been killed and over 600 arrested. Will this movement make it further than the one advanced following the sham 2009 Iranian elections (and the one which the United States refused to support)? It's hard to say. But one thing is certain: it is a matter of time before tyranny is replaced by freedom. That is the natural tendency of humankind, despite the wishes—or military power—of the tyrants. |
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Saudi
Arabia Houthi Yemem Iran |
Saudi Arabia intercepts rebel missile using US Patriot system
(19 Dec 2017) Saudi air defenses reported that they have successfully intercepted and destroyed a rebel missile in the capital city of Riyadh. The Houthi movement, an Islamic group trying to overthrow Yemen's government and attack the Saudi-led coalition wherever possible, claimed they had fired the projectile—probably a Volcano 2-H medium-range ballistic missile. Iran, despite their claims, has been arming the Houthi movement in an attempt to cause chaos in the region. The missile was destroyed by a US Patriot surface-to-air battery just seconds before it would have slammed into a royal palace. |
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Saudi
Arabia |
Saudi Arabia lifts ban on female drivers
(26 Sep 2017) Back in May (see below) we reported on Saudi King Salman’s decision to install his son, Mohammed bin Salman, as Crown Prince and heir to the throne (replacing the king's nephew in that role). We commented that this was a great move for the country’s nascent modernization efforts. Some of the early fruit of that move has been borne, as Saudi Arabia just announced it will lift the ban on female drivers. I was stationed in that country when the first major protest for the movement occurred, shortly after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. I remember the “morals police” patrolling the streets in their black robes, sticks in hand to whack any Saudi not “behaving.” The country still has a long way to go, but this is a major move in the right direction. |
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Saudi
Arabia |
(21 Jun 2017) Saudi King Salman ousts nephew, installs son. In, quite frankly, an exciting move for his country, Saudi Arabia's King Salmon has ousted his nephew as Crown Prince and installed his son in the position. The son, Mohammed bin Salman, has been the chief architect in a sweeping plan to bring the kingdom into the modern age, relying less on its oilfields for wealth and more on business and economic activity. The 40-year-old prince has pushed for fiscal responsibility in the face of dropping oil prices, privatization of Saudi companies, and increased job growth via competitiveness on the world economic stage. In an area where ISIS gains power by fomenting anger among young, unemployed men, the battle against terrorism just got a big win.
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Syria
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(19 Jun 2017) US fighter shoots down belligerent Syrian attack aircraft. A US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet shot down a Russian-built, Assad-controlled SU-22 fighter after the jet twice attacked US-backed Syrian rebels. Giving further evidence to the world that a new sheriff is in town, the US government's willingness to take Syrian jets down over the country should send a chilling message to the Assad regime. Vlad Putin's days of controlling the airspace of Syria, via his puppet Assad, have come to an end. If the conspiracy theorists were right about Russia influencing the US election, the plan has certainly backfired.
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Qatar
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(05 Jun 2017) Five Arab states cut ties with Qatar on terrorism support charges. Five powerful Arab states—four of which are US allies in the war on terror—have cut off diplomatic ties to Qatar on grounds that the nation supports terrorism. Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Bahrain, Egypt, and Yemen have also accused the nation of meddling in their internal state affairs. The issue came to a head last month when Qatar's state-controlled news agency praised Iran. The country claimed the station was a victim of a hack. Qatar actually has a long history of supporting radical Islamic extremists, and these nations are finally calling them on it. Nothing in this region is ever simple: the largest US air base in the Middle East is located in Qatar (Al Udeid).
(Photo: Iran's Rouhani, right, has called for expanded ties between Iran and Qatar) |
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Saudi
Arabia |
(22 May 2017) Trump comes out of Saudi Arabia with $110 billion arms deal in hand. It was the first time in American history that a US president made Saudi Arabia their first overseas stop. It was also the first time that Air Force One flew from Saudi Arabia to Israel. So far, President Trump's first overseas trip has been a resounding success, starting with the $110 billion arms deal inked in Riyadh. The deal, which includes such advanced defense systems as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, system recently deployed in South Korea, has been a shot-in-the-arm to US aerospace companies—all of which were up on Monday. Penn Dynamic Growth Strategy holding ITA, the iShares US Aerospace & Defense Fund, hit an all-time high on the first trading day following the deal. (Photo: Trump inks $110 billion arms deal in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)
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Turkey
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President Erdogan consolidates power in Turkey, but is that what the US wanted?
(17 Apr 2017) A Sunday referendum in Turkey handed a victory to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (pron ER do wan), but was it a victory or a defeat for US interests in the region? That's a complicated question. On the plus side, Erdogan is a direct threat to Putin with respect to Syria. Turkey has been a NATO member since 1952, and should be an important ally in the fight against radical Islam. On the negative side, the previous US administration so bungled our foreign policy in the region that even Erdogan was talking tough against the US. Under that set of circumstances, the president won an important vote on Sunday, allowing changes to the national constitution which will concentrate more power in his hands. The Turkish stock market liked the 51%-49% outcome, rallying the day after the vote. Europe, which had warned of Erdogan's increased influence in the region, didn't take the news as well, as it meant the leader of the sizable country bordering both the Western and the Muslim worlds would remain in power for the foreseeable future (he first came to power as prime minister in 2002 and president in 2014). Erdogan escaped an attempted military coup in 2014, blaming the incident on followers of cleric Fethullah Gulen. Adding to the angst with the US, the cleric now lives in Pennsylvania. President Trump will meet with the Turkish leader at the NATO summit next month, and he will almost certainly push for his assistance with the creation of "safe zones" in Syria to help stem the tide of refugees flooding through Turkey on their way to Europe. Reprinted from the Penn Wealth Report, Vol. 5, Issue 02. |
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Syria
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(06 Apr 2017) US launches salvo of Tomahawk Cruise Missiles against airfield in Syria. The United States launched targeted, precision airstrikes against an airfield in Syria near the area where the Assad regime dropped chemical weapons on his own people. 59 Tomahawk Cruise Missiles were launched from the USS Porter and the USS Ross, two American destroyers in the region. The air base attacked is approximately 120 miles from the chemical attack. The missiles hit their target just minutes after President Trump finished the Thursday portion of his meetings with the Chinese president.
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Israel
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(15 Feb 2017) Bibi Netanyahu, President Trump pledge unprecedented cooperation. It is hard to ask for a better friend than Israel, especially under the command of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Sadly, that friendship was left to wither and die over the past eight years. That has changed with the election of President Trump, and the two leaders conducted their first formal meeting Wednesday in Washington. As for the two-state solution (putting Israel and Palestine on equal footing) that has been foisted on Israel for the past generation, the new president offered an interesting take. At a joint press conference, he told reporters that the United States is open to either a two-state or a one-state solution, based on what comes of talks between Israel and the Palestinians.
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Iran
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(13 Dec 16) Geopolitics. Iran will try to build nuke-powered ships. The Iranian nuclear deal will go down as the worst deal since Bill Clinton allowed Loral Aerospace (and its enormous Dem donor CEO) to sell advanced ICBM guidance systems to the Communist Chinese, giving them the power to hit the US with nuclear weapons for the first time. Unlike that deal, the bum Iranian accord can, and will, be stopped. Iranian President Rouhani has ordered the design of a nuclear propulsion system for ships, issuing a three-month deadline for the study's completion. Maybe he just wants to keep his engineers busy and has no real plans to develop the propulsion system, which would be in clear violation of the accord. Then again, there have already been so many lines in the sand stepped over does it really matter what Iran does? Well, at least until January 20th, 2017.
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Turkey versus Russia in Air Drama
After Turkey shoots down a Russian fighter along its border with Syria, America has no choice but to back the NATO member.
(24 Nov 15) Perhaps Turkey hasn’t cooperated in the battle against ISIS to the extent we would like, but that country has been a member of NATO since 1952, and if Russia has a problem with Turkey, it has a problem with the U.S. After the Turkish military obliterated a Russian fighter that “wandered” into sovereign airspace, Putin pounded his chest in his best Khrushchev imitation, promising retribution.
With respect to this incident, the megalomaniac will ultimately take one of two paths: he will back off, realizing that the United States must come to Turkey’s aid; or he will pursue vengeance, doubting the president of the United States will obey his duty under the binding NATO guidelines. Whether the president understands it or not, there is a battle going on for both control and respect within the Middle East. His response will be very telling for our allies.
Background of the incident. To be sure, the fluid events in the region are quite convoluted. Putin backs Bashar al-Assad, the murderous thug who inherited Syria from his strongman father, Ba’ath party member Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000. The United States backs Assad’s main opposition force—the National Coalition—but has yet to provide any substantive arms support to the group.
Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey are relatively in sync with the United States in recognizing the need for Assad to go, but the moderate Arab world’s choice of would-be victors in the country is somewhat at odds with the West’s choice. Iran, not surprisingly, is Assad’s closest Arab friend, and it has aligned with Putin against the enemies of Assad and his Alawite-dominated government.
Putin has a strong desire to regain the control lost when the Soviet Union collapsed, and this is why he has the backing of such a large percentage of the Russian people. Other than simply taking land, as he did in Ukraine, his second-best strategy for domination is to control wide swaths of Eastern Europe and the Middle East through alliances. The West’s weakness has emboldened him militarily, and his psychological disorders have insulated him from international denunciation of his actions.
Ironically, it has been the halving of oil prices (that the current administration’s policies have resisted) that have proven to be Putin’s greatest threat. Despite the dire financial straits most Russians now find themselves in, their leader has embarked on a costly military rebuilding program. Like a child that cannot wait to play with a new toy, Putin began carrying out airstrikes in Syria this past September.
Turkey shoots down the Su-24 attack aircraft. Turkey had officially complained to Russia several times over the past few months that its aircraft were illegally entering the country’s airspace. In the deadly incident, a U.S. military spokesman stationed in Baghdad confirmed that U.S. intelligence agents heard the Turkish pilots, aboard their American-made F-16 Fighting Falcons, issue multiple verbal warnings to the Russian pilot before shooting the jet down near the town of Yayladagi, in the Hatay province of Turkey.
A red-faced Putin claims that the attack aircraft was shot down 0.6 miles on the Syrian side of the border, but Russia has a history of abusing the airspace of sovereign countries, making his claims highly suspect. For its part, Turkey immediately notified NATO of the incident. There are conflicting reports as to what ensued after the jet was brought down, both with respect to the pilots’ demise and the Russian rescue helicopter sent to the scene.
(Reprinted from the Journal of Wealth & Success, Vol. 3, Issue 46.)
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Nuclear Deal with Iran “a Bad Mistake of Historic Proportions”
(14 Jul 15) It truly was embarrassing, as an American, to see the “Breaking News” chyron scrolling across the television screen all day. “Historic Iran Nuclear Deal,” or some such. Sad for the likes of John “Neville Chamberlain” Kerry. Embarrassing for the gullible, wide-eyed J-school suckers in the press who write the garbage. Bad for America and all who love peace.
If there is any consolation (I say sarcastically), it is that nations nearer Iran will be within the reach of their nuclear missiles long before they have the range to hit America. Unless, of course, the president pulls a trick like the one performed back in the ‘90s and allows Loral Space & Communications Corp. to sell the Iranian mullahs the same missile guidance technology they sold the Chinese. (We assume that mega-political-donor Bernard Schwartz still runs the joint.)
Once again, we find ourselves hoping that, as was the case with Chamberlain, the free world has given the enemies of peace just enough rope to hang themselves. Unfortunately, a lot of innocent civilians typically end up dying before the dark potentates are brought to justice.
Let there be no doubt. As with Chamberlain in 1938 Munich, the antagonists of freedom knew that we would not walk away without a deal. It was like watching a smart-alecky grade-schooler saunter out of the principal’s office thinking he just hoodwinked the system. This colossal mistake makes it tougher for the Iranian people to push for reforms. It emboldens and strengthens the Muslim leaders in charge (and the mullahs are in charge) of the state. It moves Israel one step closer to an unthinkable nightmare.
Sure, the US Congress will reject the pact, with many from the president’s own party voting against the Faustian bargain. It doesn’t matter. The president has veto power over whatever the congress does in this case, and the veto stamp is inked up and ready to go. Fortunately, Bebe Netanyahu may well become our Winston Churchill. (Reprinted from next Sunday's Journal of Wealth & Success, Vol. 3, Issue 28.)
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Oil Price Surge Following Saudi Arabian Airstrikes in Yemen
(26 Mar 15) The Royal Saudi Air Force used American-built F-15E Strike Eagles to pound Houthi militant strongholds in Yemen, its southern neighbor, hours after that nation’s president fled his country. Though Yemen doesn’t produce much oil itself, it sits on a vital port region necessary for the flow of Saudi oil to the world. Oil spiked 5% on the strikes.
President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi fled to the southern city of Aden, on the banks of the critical Port of Aden, as Iranian-backed Houthi militants closed in on him. Saudi Arabia, backed by four other Persian Gulf nations and Egypt, began coordinated military efforts to protect the president’s escape and unseat the militant group, which has taken de facto control of Yemen in recent months.
This fight buttresses Middle-Eastern concerns about the nuclear deal with Iran, which finds itself further and further removed from more moderate forces in the region. Iran has supplied money, weapons, and training to the Shiite Houthi militia group which seized the capital city of Sana’a last September. The fight is between two strains of the Muslim faith—Sunnis comprise about 70% of the Saudi population, with about 20% of the population being Shia. Flip those numbers, at least, and you will see the demographic makeup of Iran. Iraq is an even more interesting case, as it has a more evenly divided population of Sunnis and Shias, with the mostly secular Kurdish minorities living in the northern part of the country.
It has been the more aggressive Shia population in the Middle East responsible for the majority of the ongoing violence in the region. Iranian Shias see Tehran as the center of the world caliphate, something that—quite obviously—highly concerns the Sunni Muslim population. About 85% of Muslims are Sunni, and about 10% (175 million or so) are Shia.
(Reprinted from the Journal of Wealth & Success, Vol. 3, Issue 14.)
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Netanyahu Wins Decisive Fourth Term as Leader of Israel
I wonder if he got President Obama's congratulatory fruit basket?
(18 Mar 15) Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu emerged victorious in his quest for his fourth term—third consecutive—as the nation’s leader. Despite erroneous media claims that he was trailing his opponent, Isaac Herzog of the Zionist Union, the victory was decisive.
Bibi’s Likud Party won at least 29 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, with the nearest rival party holding just 14 seats. Equally as important, the centrist Kulanu party was expected to pull in at least 10 seats. Kulanu could help Netanyahu’s Likud on vital foreign policy issues.
The fireworks increased in the days leading up to the election, with Netanyahu making a dramatic policy reversal in stating his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state. He also raised questions about the mass percentage of Palestinians headed to the polls, indicating that their interests and Israel’s interests are not aligned. Indeed, Arabs and Palestinians decried the outcome of the election and promised to take another path for “justice.”
Sabri Saidam, an advisor to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, told Arabs that the response must now be a united front in the pursuit of war crimes against Netanyahu at the International Criminal Court. While the press corps tried to present the Palestinian/Arab voter sentiment as ambivalence towards both major candidates, there is no doubt as to whom they wanted to lose the election. This is evident by their post-election outrage.
(Reprinted from this coming Sunday’s Journal of Wealth & Success, Vol. 3, Issue 12.)
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Forget the Garbage in the Press, The Last Egyptian Election was Not "Free"
Field Marshal Sisi's election would be in America's best interests
(28 Jan 14) Much to the chagrin of the mainstream media, toppled Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi sits in a metal cage facing the death penalty for espionage, attempted escape, and the killing of prison guards. Anytime you read Morsi's name in the mainstream media, it will be preceded with the words "freely elected," almost like it is part of his title. Once again, the press has duped us. There was nothing free or fair about the Muslim Brotherhood's hand selected thug being placed in the president's seat. Intimidation, threats, fear-mongering, and violence were all used to assure he could not lose the "election." The actions taken while Egyptians lined up for the ballot boxes made the voter intimidation in Philly by the Black Panthers look like Romper Room. Now, the worm has turned.
Egypt was one of our strongest allies in a torn and troubled region. Due to a complete lack of a cogent Middle-Eastern foreign policy, we sit by and watch as our enemies gain influence in the area as our clout wanes. Fortunately, as the administration's state department was cheering on Morsi, the Egyptian military was taking action. After giving him an ultimatum, which he disregarded, the "freely elected" president was ripped out of the presidential palace and replaced until new elections are held, probably around April.
As the international press wails mournfully for their guy sitting behind bars, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in Egypt has given their blessing to a pragmatic and experienced leader, Field Marshal Abdul al-Sisi (pronounced "al see-see") for the upcoming elections. Among the citizenry, Field Marshal Sisi is widely popular, and they appear to be endorsing his wishes to "unite the people and restore security and Egypt's international standing." In a region deeply in need of some stability, the probable election of the soft-spoken former military intelligence chief will fill a void left by America's pacifist and misguided game plan.
Pakistan to Proceed on Pipeline Deal with Iran Despite U.S. Sanctions
(26 Sep 13) Pakistan, despite all of the phony rhetoric, continues to side with our enemies in the Middle East. After the Kerry Luger Bill passed the U.S. Congress in 2009, following "democratic elections" in Pakistan, the U.S. committed itself to giving $1.5 billion in aid to the nation through 2014. Now, after bashing U.S. drone strikes against terrorists in the country, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has made it clear he will proceed with a gas pipeline running between his country and Iran, despite U.S. economic sanctions against the latter.
As is so often the case, rogue states are willing to tell the United States just about anything it wants to hear, with a willing state department lapping it up like a thirsty dog, while their actions end up undermining the U.S. at every turn. In addition to the pipeline deal and bashing the United States at the U.N,, Sharif is brokering a peace deal with the Pakistani Taliban. He has assured the world, however, that the militant group must renounce terrorism (the U.S. State Department can breathe a sigh of relief.)
A balance of power between nations in the Middle East/South Asia has long been an aim of the United States, in the hopes that these "checks and balances" would keep some semblance of peace in the region. Pakistan and India have long been sworn enemies, so it is of interest that Sharif is also anxious to thaw relations with their neighbor to the east.
President Obama is expected to meet with Prime Minister Sharif in just under a month to discuss terrorism. While Pakistan loves the flow of American aid and has been trying to open U.S. markets to Pakistani products, the president is not expected to bring up the pipeline--despite its clear violation of U.S. policy. Perhaps the prime minister has made the calculated determination that America will not follow through on its threats. Yet another indication of how easy it is to dupe a pacifist state department.
Any opinions expressed are those of Penn Wealth Publishing, LLC and are current only through the date posted. These views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always consult your investment professional before investing any money.
After Turkey shoots down a Russian fighter along its border with Syria, America has no choice but to back the NATO member.
(24 Nov 15) Perhaps Turkey hasn’t cooperated in the battle against ISIS to the extent we would like, but that country has been a member of NATO since 1952, and if Russia has a problem with Turkey, it has a problem with the U.S. After the Turkish military obliterated a Russian fighter that “wandered” into sovereign airspace, Putin pounded his chest in his best Khrushchev imitation, promising retribution.
With respect to this incident, the megalomaniac will ultimately take one of two paths: he will back off, realizing that the United States must come to Turkey’s aid; or he will pursue vengeance, doubting the president of the United States will obey his duty under the binding NATO guidelines. Whether the president understands it or not, there is a battle going on for both control and respect within the Middle East. His response will be very telling for our allies.
Background of the incident. To be sure, the fluid events in the region are quite convoluted. Putin backs Bashar al-Assad, the murderous thug who inherited Syria from his strongman father, Ba’ath party member Hafez al-Assad, who ruled Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000. The United States backs Assad’s main opposition force—the National Coalition—but has yet to provide any substantive arms support to the group.
Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey are relatively in sync with the United States in recognizing the need for Assad to go, but the moderate Arab world’s choice of would-be victors in the country is somewhat at odds with the West’s choice. Iran, not surprisingly, is Assad’s closest Arab friend, and it has aligned with Putin against the enemies of Assad and his Alawite-dominated government.
Putin has a strong desire to regain the control lost when the Soviet Union collapsed, and this is why he has the backing of such a large percentage of the Russian people. Other than simply taking land, as he did in Ukraine, his second-best strategy for domination is to control wide swaths of Eastern Europe and the Middle East through alliances. The West’s weakness has emboldened him militarily, and his psychological disorders have insulated him from international denunciation of his actions.
Ironically, it has been the halving of oil prices (that the current administration’s policies have resisted) that have proven to be Putin’s greatest threat. Despite the dire financial straits most Russians now find themselves in, their leader has embarked on a costly military rebuilding program. Like a child that cannot wait to play with a new toy, Putin began carrying out airstrikes in Syria this past September.
Turkey shoots down the Su-24 attack aircraft. Turkey had officially complained to Russia several times over the past few months that its aircraft were illegally entering the country’s airspace. In the deadly incident, a U.S. military spokesman stationed in Baghdad confirmed that U.S. intelligence agents heard the Turkish pilots, aboard their American-made F-16 Fighting Falcons, issue multiple verbal warnings to the Russian pilot before shooting the jet down near the town of Yayladagi, in the Hatay province of Turkey.
A red-faced Putin claims that the attack aircraft was shot down 0.6 miles on the Syrian side of the border, but Russia has a history of abusing the airspace of sovereign countries, making his claims highly suspect. For its part, Turkey immediately notified NATO of the incident. There are conflicting reports as to what ensued after the jet was brought down, both with respect to the pilots’ demise and the Russian rescue helicopter sent to the scene.
(Reprinted from the Journal of Wealth & Success, Vol. 3, Issue 46.)
(OK, got it. Take me back to the Penn Wealth Hub!)
Nuclear Deal with Iran “a Bad Mistake of Historic Proportions”
(14 Jul 15) It truly was embarrassing, as an American, to see the “Breaking News” chyron scrolling across the television screen all day. “Historic Iran Nuclear Deal,” or some such. Sad for the likes of John “Neville Chamberlain” Kerry. Embarrassing for the gullible, wide-eyed J-school suckers in the press who write the garbage. Bad for America and all who love peace.
If there is any consolation (I say sarcastically), it is that nations nearer Iran will be within the reach of their nuclear missiles long before they have the range to hit America. Unless, of course, the president pulls a trick like the one performed back in the ‘90s and allows Loral Space & Communications Corp. to sell the Iranian mullahs the same missile guidance technology they sold the Chinese. (We assume that mega-political-donor Bernard Schwartz still runs the joint.)
Once again, we find ourselves hoping that, as was the case with Chamberlain, the free world has given the enemies of peace just enough rope to hang themselves. Unfortunately, a lot of innocent civilians typically end up dying before the dark potentates are brought to justice.
Let there be no doubt. As with Chamberlain in 1938 Munich, the antagonists of freedom knew that we would not walk away without a deal. It was like watching a smart-alecky grade-schooler saunter out of the principal’s office thinking he just hoodwinked the system. This colossal mistake makes it tougher for the Iranian people to push for reforms. It emboldens and strengthens the Muslim leaders in charge (and the mullahs are in charge) of the state. It moves Israel one step closer to an unthinkable nightmare.
Sure, the US Congress will reject the pact, with many from the president’s own party voting against the Faustian bargain. It doesn’t matter. The president has veto power over whatever the congress does in this case, and the veto stamp is inked up and ready to go. Fortunately, Bebe Netanyahu may well become our Winston Churchill. (Reprinted from next Sunday's Journal of Wealth & Success, Vol. 3, Issue 28.)
(OK, got it. Take me back to the Penn Wealth Hub!)
Oil Price Surge Following Saudi Arabian Airstrikes in Yemen
(26 Mar 15) The Royal Saudi Air Force used American-built F-15E Strike Eagles to pound Houthi militant strongholds in Yemen, its southern neighbor, hours after that nation’s president fled his country. Though Yemen doesn’t produce much oil itself, it sits on a vital port region necessary for the flow of Saudi oil to the world. Oil spiked 5% on the strikes.
President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi fled to the southern city of Aden, on the banks of the critical Port of Aden, as Iranian-backed Houthi militants closed in on him. Saudi Arabia, backed by four other Persian Gulf nations and Egypt, began coordinated military efforts to protect the president’s escape and unseat the militant group, which has taken de facto control of Yemen in recent months.
This fight buttresses Middle-Eastern concerns about the nuclear deal with Iran, which finds itself further and further removed from more moderate forces in the region. Iran has supplied money, weapons, and training to the Shiite Houthi militia group which seized the capital city of Sana’a last September. The fight is between two strains of the Muslim faith—Sunnis comprise about 70% of the Saudi population, with about 20% of the population being Shia. Flip those numbers, at least, and you will see the demographic makeup of Iran. Iraq is an even more interesting case, as it has a more evenly divided population of Sunnis and Shias, with the mostly secular Kurdish minorities living in the northern part of the country.
It has been the more aggressive Shia population in the Middle East responsible for the majority of the ongoing violence in the region. Iranian Shias see Tehran as the center of the world caliphate, something that—quite obviously—highly concerns the Sunni Muslim population. About 85% of Muslims are Sunni, and about 10% (175 million or so) are Shia.
(Reprinted from the Journal of Wealth & Success, Vol. 3, Issue 14.)
(OK, got it. Take me back to the Penn Wealth Hub!)
Netanyahu Wins Decisive Fourth Term as Leader of Israel
I wonder if he got President Obama's congratulatory fruit basket?
(18 Mar 15) Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu emerged victorious in his quest for his fourth term—third consecutive—as the nation’s leader. Despite erroneous media claims that he was trailing his opponent, Isaac Herzog of the Zionist Union, the victory was decisive.
Bibi’s Likud Party won at least 29 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, with the nearest rival party holding just 14 seats. Equally as important, the centrist Kulanu party was expected to pull in at least 10 seats. Kulanu could help Netanyahu’s Likud on vital foreign policy issues.
The fireworks increased in the days leading up to the election, with Netanyahu making a dramatic policy reversal in stating his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state. He also raised questions about the mass percentage of Palestinians headed to the polls, indicating that their interests and Israel’s interests are not aligned. Indeed, Arabs and Palestinians decried the outcome of the election and promised to take another path for “justice.”
Sabri Saidam, an advisor to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, told Arabs that the response must now be a united front in the pursuit of war crimes against Netanyahu at the International Criminal Court. While the press corps tried to present the Palestinian/Arab voter sentiment as ambivalence towards both major candidates, there is no doubt as to whom they wanted to lose the election. This is evident by their post-election outrage.
(Reprinted from this coming Sunday’s Journal of Wealth & Success, Vol. 3, Issue 12.)
(OK, got it. Take me back to the Penn Wealth Hub!)
Forget the Garbage in the Press, The Last Egyptian Election was Not "Free"
Field Marshal Sisi's election would be in America's best interests
(28 Jan 14) Much to the chagrin of the mainstream media, toppled Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi sits in a metal cage facing the death penalty for espionage, attempted escape, and the killing of prison guards. Anytime you read Morsi's name in the mainstream media, it will be preceded with the words "freely elected," almost like it is part of his title. Once again, the press has duped us. There was nothing free or fair about the Muslim Brotherhood's hand selected thug being placed in the president's seat. Intimidation, threats, fear-mongering, and violence were all used to assure he could not lose the "election." The actions taken while Egyptians lined up for the ballot boxes made the voter intimidation in Philly by the Black Panthers look like Romper Room. Now, the worm has turned.
Egypt was one of our strongest allies in a torn and troubled region. Due to a complete lack of a cogent Middle-Eastern foreign policy, we sit by and watch as our enemies gain influence in the area as our clout wanes. Fortunately, as the administration's state department was cheering on Morsi, the Egyptian military was taking action. After giving him an ultimatum, which he disregarded, the "freely elected" president was ripped out of the presidential palace and replaced until new elections are held, probably around April.
As the international press wails mournfully for their guy sitting behind bars, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in Egypt has given their blessing to a pragmatic and experienced leader, Field Marshal Abdul al-Sisi (pronounced "al see-see") for the upcoming elections. Among the citizenry, Field Marshal Sisi is widely popular, and they appear to be endorsing his wishes to "unite the people and restore security and Egypt's international standing." In a region deeply in need of some stability, the probable election of the soft-spoken former military intelligence chief will fill a void left by America's pacifist and misguided game plan.
Pakistan to Proceed on Pipeline Deal with Iran Despite U.S. Sanctions
(26 Sep 13) Pakistan, despite all of the phony rhetoric, continues to side with our enemies in the Middle East. After the Kerry Luger Bill passed the U.S. Congress in 2009, following "democratic elections" in Pakistan, the U.S. committed itself to giving $1.5 billion in aid to the nation through 2014. Now, after bashing U.S. drone strikes against terrorists in the country, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has made it clear he will proceed with a gas pipeline running between his country and Iran, despite U.S. economic sanctions against the latter.
As is so often the case, rogue states are willing to tell the United States just about anything it wants to hear, with a willing state department lapping it up like a thirsty dog, while their actions end up undermining the U.S. at every turn. In addition to the pipeline deal and bashing the United States at the U.N,, Sharif is brokering a peace deal with the Pakistani Taliban. He has assured the world, however, that the militant group must renounce terrorism (the U.S. State Department can breathe a sigh of relief.)
A balance of power between nations in the Middle East/South Asia has long been an aim of the United States, in the hopes that these "checks and balances" would keep some semblance of peace in the region. Pakistan and India have long been sworn enemies, so it is of interest that Sharif is also anxious to thaw relations with their neighbor to the east.
President Obama is expected to meet with Prime Minister Sharif in just under a month to discuss terrorism. While Pakistan loves the flow of American aid and has been trying to open U.S. markets to Pakistani products, the president is not expected to bring up the pipeline--despite its clear violation of U.S. policy. Perhaps the prime minister has made the calculated determination that America will not follow through on its threats. Yet another indication of how easy it is to dupe a pacifist state department.
Any opinions expressed are those of Penn Wealth Publishing, LLC and are current only through the date posted. These views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and no forecasts can be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always consult your investment professional before investing any money.